Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 11.6 | 18.5% | 97 | 0.84% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 8.6 | 16.2% | 85 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 7.9 | 13% | 68 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 10.6 | 18.9% | 99 | 0.73% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.3 | 9.1% | 48 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.3 | 8.6% | 45 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.3 | 7.4% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 70+ | 3 | 4.3 | 8.4% | 44 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 32 | 55.7 | 100% | 525 | 0.5% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 13472 | 57617 | 485 | 117 | 473 |
| Sep 17 | 13498 | 57785 | 487 | 117 | 498 |
| Sep 18 | 13600 | 58013 | 488 | 117 | 556 |
| Sep 19 | 13675 | 58182 | 488 | 117 | 591 |
| Sep 20 | 13676 | 58249 | 488 | 117 | 513 |
| Sep 21 | 13751 | 58329 | 488 | 117 | 498 |
| Sep 22 | 13783 | 58473 | 492 | 117 | 525 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 8851 | 33875 | 359 | 103 | 402 |
| Sep 17 | 8883 | 34001 | 360 | 103 | 422 |
| Sep 18 | 8963 | 34151 | 362 | 103 | 460 |
| Sep 19 | 8971 | 34229 | 364 | 103 | 434 |
| Sep 20 | 9009 | 34288 | 365 | 103 | 412 |
| Sep 21 | 9062 | 34354 | 369 | 103 | 396 |
| Sep 22 | 9091 | 34460 | 371 | 104 | 423 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.1 | 11.3% | 48 | 0.62% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 12.3 | 26.2% | 111 | 1.32% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 5.9 | 14.4% | 61 | 0.86% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.9 | 12.8% | 54 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 3.7 | 11.8% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.4 | 7.8% | 33 | 0.34% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.4 | 6.9% | 29 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 1 | 4.0 | 8.7% | 37 | 0.52% |
| All ages | 29 | 40.7 | 100% | 423 | 0.65% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 6760 | 22635 | 338 | 85 | 341 |
| Sep 17 | 6783 | 22715 | 339 | 85 | 358 |
| Sep 18 | 6843 | 22799 | 340 | 85 | 400 |
| Sep 19 | 6887 | 22850 | 342 | 85 | 411 |
| Sep 20 | 6926 | 22874 | 343 | 85 | 402 |
| Sep 21 | 6984 | 22910 | 347 | 85 | 419 |
| Sep 22 | 7018 | 22997 | 348 | 85 | 436 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.7 | 9.9% | 43 | 0.79% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 9.0 | 18.3% | 80 | 1.47% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 6.3 | 12.4% | 54 | 1.19% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 6.7 | 13.5% | 59 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 6.6 | 12.6% | 55 | 1.11% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.1 | 12.6% | 55 | 0.81% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6.0 | 11.2% | 49 | 0.77% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.7 | 9.4% | 41 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 34 | 48.1 | 100% | 436 | 0.96% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 14436 | 65847 | 567 | 99 | 431 |
| Sep 17 | 14512 | 66037 | 571 | 99 | 502 |
| Sep 18 | 14573 | 66302 | 573 | 99 | 524 |
| Sep 19 | 14616 | 66396 | 574 | 99 | 527 |
| Sep 20 | 14648 | 66507 | 575 | 99 | 509 |
| Sep 21 | 14691 | 66662 | 583 | 99 | 500 |
| Sep 22 | 14731 | 66798 | 584 | 99 | 535 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 6.4 | 10.5% | 56 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 6.4 | 13.8% | 74 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 9.7 | 18.1% | 97 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 9.1 | 15.1% | 81 | 0.6% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 6.7 | 13.6% | 73 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.9 | 11.2% | 60 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4.4 | 8% | 43 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 1 | 4.6 | 9.5% | 51 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 40 | 52.3 | 100% | 535 | 0.45% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 50868 | 393890 | 1794 | 327 | 1145 |
| Sep 17 | 51080 | 395250 | 1800 | 327 | 1276 |
| Sep 18 | 51388 | 396874 | 1807 | 327 | 1542 |
| Sep 19 | 51461 | 397500 | 1810 | 327 | 1446 |
| Sep 20 | 51542 | 397971 | 1813 | 327 | 1419 |
| Sep 21 | 51844 | 398642 | 1807 | 327 | 1588 |
| Sep 22 | 51946 | 399506 | 1813 | 327 | 1661 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 23.7 | 12.3% | 204 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 39.9 | 21.2% | 352 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 37.1 | 20.6% | 342 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 26.3 | 14% | 232 | 0.3% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 17.7 | 10.1% | 167 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 18.1 | 9.8% | 163 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 13.3 | 6.3% | 104 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 13 | 11.1 | 5.8% | 97 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 102 | 187.3 | 100% | 1661 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 690542 | 3243034 | 37419 | 7806 | 19079 |
| Sep 17 | 693737 | 3255875 | 37508 | 7827 | 21465 |
| Sep 18 | 697281 | 3268342 | 37634 | 7833 | 23033 |
| Sep 19 | 699223 | 3276148 | 37709 | 7835 | 23315 |
| Sep 20 | 700759 | 3280596 | 37770 | 7837 | 22516 |
| Sep 21 | 704434 | 3288101 | 37935 | 7854 | 23814 |
| Sep 22 | 707084 | 3296228 | 38064 | 7876 | 25881 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 287 | 341.3 | 12.2% | 3146 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 579 | 614.3 | 21.3% | 5514 | 0.73% |
| 20-29 | 318 | 380.6 | 13.3% | 3455 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 421 | 435.3 | 15.3% | 3954 | 0.52% |
| 40-49 | 364 | 360.7 | 12.5% | 3248 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 291 | 301.7 | 10.5% | 2727 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 197 | 227.7 | 7.9% | 2057 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 193 | 193.1 | 6.9% | 1780 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 2650 | 2854.7 | 100% | 25881 | 0.44% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7456"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges